Lead story · 7 min read
Can a Prediction Market Make the Event It Trades More Likely?
Polymarket lists contracts on the failure of major banks. We examine whether such a price can do more than measure fear and begin to amplify it.
The market in brief
How live betting works: from the event on the field to sportsbook settlement
Brazil Banned Betting. Where Did the Players Go?
How Did a Prediction Market Insure a Furniture Promotion?
How a Nearly $25,000 Win Was Recalculated to $2,200
How a Nearly $25,000 Win Was Recalculated to $2,200
The story of three bettors, the same NRL multi and odds of 26–34 that Bet365 replaced with 3 after settlement.
Withdrawals no longer restore deposit limits in Great Britain
From 30 September, British operators must offer one clearly defined type of deposit limit. We explain gross versus net limits and how the rule may affect player behaviour.
PolyTrace: a convenient service for tracking large Polymarket trades
PolyTrace brings large Polymarket trades, wallet profiles, and historical results into one interface. We look at what the service shows and how its data should be interpreted.
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