Lead story · 8 min read
Two NFL upsets eliminated 1,604 entries from a $25 million contest in one day
The Rams and Colts looked like safe picks, but their losses eliminated more than half of the remaining Circa Survivor entries. We examine why the most likely winner is not always the best Survivor pick.
The market in brief
One Team, Six Spreads: Why a Bettor Split $250,000 Across One NBA Game
FIFA's Prediction Market Partner Reported $167 Million in Volume. Researchers Question $108 Million of It
7,518 NFL Market Checks—and Not One Kalshi–Polymarket Arbitrage
An NFL Game Ended in a Tie. Why a Sportsbook Refunds the Bet While Kalshi Settles at 50 Cents
An NFL Game Ended in a Tie. Why a Sportsbook Refunds the Bet While Kalshi Settles at 50 Cents
The Giants–Commanders 27–27 tie shows why the same winner position can be settled differently by a sportsbook and a prediction market—and how that difference can break a hedge.
How a $12 Bet Became $145,683: The Math Behind a 12-Touchdown Parlay
A Hard Rock Bet customer correctly picked 12 touchdown scorers across seven NFL games and won $145,683.80 from $12. We examine the market, each selection's implied probability and the math behind the enormous odds.
Three $173 Bets Before a Surprise Appointment: What Is Kalshi Reviewing?
Three small Kalshi trades costing a combined $173 appeared before Katie Zacharia was named White House press secretary. Their potential payout reached $9,608.
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