Lead story · 7 min read
The Smart Contracts Worked. Why Did 737 Accounts Still Lose $2.73 Million?
A third-party script was compromised, while Polymarket's normal infrastructure executed the operations as authorized. We examine how this could happen and where smart-contract security ends.
The market in brief
39 players, 29 games and $3 million in bets: how the point-shaving scheme worked
Two NFL upsets eliminated 1,604 entries from a $25 million contest in one day
One Team, Six Spreads: Why a Bettor Split $250,000 Across One NBA Game
FIFA's Prediction Market Partner Reported $167 Million in Volume. Researchers Question $108 Million of It
FIFA's Prediction Market Partner Reported $167 Million in Volume. Researchers Question $108 Million of It
An analysis of ADI Predictstreet's public blockchain data identified trading among linked wallets. We examine what is known, what the investigation does not prove, and why the FIFA partnership makes the findings especially important.
7,518 NFL Market Checks—and Not One Kalshi–Polymarket Arbitrage
Vultax Research compared executable prices and order-book depth on Kalshi and Polymarket. Across 7,518 pre-game NFL checks, quotes never crossed—even before fees.
An NFL Game Ended in a Tie. Why a Sportsbook Refunds the Bet While Kalshi Settles at 50 Cents
The Giants–Commanders 27–27 tie shows why the same winner position can be settled differently by a sportsbook and a prediction market—and how that difference can break a hedge.
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