Lead story · 7 min read
39 players, 29 games and $3 million in bets: how the point-shaving scheme worked
Shane Hennen pleaded guilty in a case involving bribed basketball players and manipulated spreads. We explain how a team can win while the intended bet still lands, and what integrity monitoring may detect.
The market in brief
Two NFL upsets eliminated 1,604 entries from a $25 million contest in one day
One Team, Six Spreads: Why a Bettor Split $250,000 Across One NBA Game
FIFA's Prediction Market Partner Reported $167 Million in Volume. Researchers Question $108 Million of It
7,518 NFL Market Checks—and Not One Kalshi–Polymarket Arbitrage
7,518 NFL Market Checks—and Not One Kalshi–Polymarket Arbitrage
Vultax Research compared executable prices and order-book depth on Kalshi and Polymarket. Across 7,518 pre-game NFL checks, quotes never crossed—even before fees.
An NFL Game Ended in a Tie. Why a Sportsbook Refunds the Bet While Kalshi Settles at 50 Cents
The Giants–Commanders 27–27 tie shows why the same winner position can be settled differently by a sportsbook and a prediction market—and how that difference can break a hedge.
How a $12 Bet Became $145,683: The Math Behind a 12-Touchdown Parlay
A Hard Rock Bet customer correctly picked 12 touchdown scorers across seven NFL games and won $145,683.80 from $12. We examine the market, each selection's implied probability and the math behind the enormous odds.
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