7,518 NFL Market Checks—and Not One Kalshi–Polymarket Arbitrage
Vultax Research compared executable prices and order-book depth on Kalshi and Polymarket. Across 7,518 pre-game NFL checks, quotes never crossed—even before fees.
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All blog articles about Odds Analysis.
An NFL Game Ended in a Tie. Why a Sportsbook Refunds the Bet While Kalshi Settles at 50 Cents
The Giants–Commanders 27–27 tie shows why the same winner position can be settled differently by a sportsbook and a prediction market—and how that difference can break a hedge.
How a $12 Bet Became $145,683: The Math Behind a 12-Touchdown Parlay
A Hard Rock Bet customer correctly picked 12 touchdown scorers across seven NFL games and won $145,683.80 from $12. We examine the market, each selection's implied probability and the math behind the enormous odds.
How injury protection changes the value of a bet
We examine when injury protection is worth worse odds or a separate fee, and why price alone is no longer enough when comparing sportsbooks.
Suspicious betting: how to analyse an odds move before drawing conclusions
A practical framework for bettors: remove the margin, reconstruct the move, test the sporting explanation and check whether the available price still offers value.