All blog articles about Prediction Markets.
A third-party script was compromised, while Polymarket's normal infrastructure executed the operations as authorized. We examine how this could happen and where smart-contract security ends.
An analysis of ADI Predictstreet's public blockchain data identified trading among linked wallets. We examine what is known, what the investigation does not prove, and why the FIFA partnership makes the findings especially important.
Vultax Research compared executable prices and order-book depth on Kalshi and Polymarket. Across 7,518 pre-game NFL checks, quotes never crossed—even before fees.
The Giants–Commanders 27–27 tie shows why the same winner position can be settled differently by a sportsbook and a prediction market—and how that difference can break a hedge.
Three small Kalshi trades costing a combined $173 appeared before Katie Zacharia was named White House press secretary. Their potential payout reached $9,608.
Polymarket lists contracts on the failure of major banks. We examine whether such a price can do more than measure fear and begin to amplify it.
Jim McIngvale used Kalshi sports contracts to offset potential customer refunds. A real example of hedging commercial risk through a prediction market.
PolyTrace brings large Polymarket trades, wallet profiles, and historical results into one interface. We look at what the service shows and how its data should be interpreted.
Breaking down a record NFL day for Kalshi and Polymarket US: how contract volume differs from value at trade prices and why neither figure shows available liquidity.
New York calls Polymarket an unlicensed gambling operation. Polymarket says its event contracts belong to a federally regulated exchange. The real dispute is where trading ends and sports betting begins.
A practical guide to prediction markets: Yes and No contracts, probability pricing, order books, liquidity, fees, and the differences from bookmakers and betting exchanges.
Pinnacle has introduced an API offering for prediction market participants. What the company offers, why traders need its odds and how this relates to restrictions on data access.
Confidential data, suspicious thermometer readings and pressure on a journalist: five stories about where an edge in prediction markets can come from.