7,518 NFL Market Checks—and Not One Kalshi–Polymarket Arbitrage
Vultax Research compared executable prices and order-book depth on Kalshi and Polymarket. Across 7,518 pre-game NFL checks, quotes never crossed—even before fees.
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All blog articles about Prediction Markets.
An NFL Game Ended in a Tie. Why a Sportsbook Refunds the Bet While Kalshi Settles at 50 Cents
The Giants–Commanders 27–27 tie shows why the same winner position can be settled differently by a sportsbook and a prediction market—and how that difference can break a hedge.
Three $173 Bets Before a Surprise Appointment: What Is Kalshi Reviewing?
Three small Kalshi trades costing a combined $173 appeared before Katie Zacharia was named White House press secretary. Their potential payout reached $9,608.
Can a Prediction Market Make the Event It Trades More Likely?
Polymarket lists contracts on the failure of major banks. We examine whether such a price can do more than measure fear and begin to amplify it.
How Did a Prediction Market Insure a Furniture Promotion?
Jim McIngvale used Kalshi sports contracts to offset potential customer refunds. A real example of hedging commercial risk through a prediction market.
PolyTrace: a convenient service for tracking large Polymarket trades
PolyTrace brings large Polymarket trades, wallet profiles, and historical results into one interface. We look at what the service shows and how its data should be interpreted.
Kalshi and Polymarket US Set Records. What Do Their Volume Figures Actually Mean?
Breaking down a record NFL day for Kalshi and Polymarket US: how contract volume differs from value at trade prices and why neither figure shows available liquidity.
Prediction Markets: A New Form of Trading or Betting Under Another Name?
New York calls Polymarket an unlicensed gambling operation. Polymarket says its event contracts belong to a federally regulated exchange. The real dispute is where trading ends and sports betting begins.
From Odds to Contracts: How Prediction Markets Work
A practical guide to prediction markets: Yes and No contracts, probability pricing, order books, liquidity, fees, and the differences from bookmakers and betting exchanges.
Pinnacle offers its data to prediction market participants
Pinnacle has introduced an API offering for prediction market participants. What the company offers, why traders need its odds and how this relates to restrictions on data access.
Polymarket: when some predict and others already know
Confidential data, suspicious thermometer readings and pressure on a journalist: five stories about where an edge in prediction markets can come from.