Can a Prediction Market Make the Event It Trades More Likely?
Polymarket lists contracts on the failure of major banks. We examine whether such a price can do more than measure fear and begin to amplify it.
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All blog articles about Polymarket.
PolyTrace: a convenient service for tracking large Polymarket trades
PolyTrace brings large Polymarket trades, wallet profiles, and historical results into one interface. We look at what the service shows and how its data should be interpreted.
Prediction Markets: A New Form of Trading or Betting Under Another Name?
New York calls Polymarket an unlicensed gambling operation. Polymarket says its event contracts belong to a federally regulated exchange. The real dispute is where trading ends and sports betting begins.
From Odds to Contracts: How Prediction Markets Work
A practical guide to prediction markets: Yes and No contracts, probability pricing, order books, liquidity, fees, and the differences from bookmakers and betting exchanges.
Polymarket: when some predict and others already know
Confidential data, suspicious thermometer readings and pressure on a journalist: five stories about where an edge in prediction markets can come from.